Following a 51-14 drubbing on Christmas day against a spiraling Rams team, Denver's new ownership cut ties with first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett. This team has problems, and those problems have revolved around Hackett and new quarterback Russell Wilson. There tends to be a spark given to every NFL team the week after their head coach gets fired, but I'm not sure this Broncos team has much left in the tank. I, along with many others, applauded Denver's aggressiveness in acquiring Wilson in the offseason. What was questionable at the time, however, was the extension they gave Wilson immediately after the trade. He had two years remaining on his deal with Seattle, so Denver could have waited to see how he'd fit before extending him. They are now in a position where he is their quarterback for at least the next 3 seasons, and they have to hope they can find the right coaching staff to get him playing like the Russell Wilson we knew in Seattle. All of this is to say that I don't think Denver gets some sort of spark this week following the firing of their head coach. There's more problems in the organization at the moment, and they're stuck with them for the forseeable future. Kansas City is a juggernaut, and I expect them to keep things rolling at home. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid haven't missed a beat without star receiver Tyreek Hill.
Score Prediction: DEN 10 KC 31
New Orleans (6-9) @ Philadelphia (13-2)
Line: Philadelphia -5.5 O/U 41
The success that backup quarterback Gardner Minshew had for Philadelphia last week in Dallas should prove to everyone just how great this roster is. I don't think it makes a difference whether Jalen Hurts tries to play through his shoulder sprain or whether Minshew plays for the Eagles again this weekend. Philadelphia is simply too talented and too well-coached to let their hopes of clinching the 1-seed in the NFC slip away, even without their starting quarterback in Hurts who has played at an MVP level this season. The Saints have had a tumultuous season, but still have something to play for in the midst of horrible seasons for everyone else in the NFC South. Coaching has been an issue for New Orleans in 2022, especially on the offensive side of the ball. This Saints team is still talented, and there's a hope that Sean Payton will return to New Orleans next season. That's really all that Saints fans should be looking forward to at this point. I think Philadelphia gets out to an early lead and the Saints make it look respectable in the end.
Score Prediction: NO 17 PHI 30
Jacksonville (7-8) @ Houston (2-12-1)
Line: Jacksonville -3 O/U 43
Jacksonville is on a roll, winning 4 of their last 5 since their bye week in week 11. Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top 10 quarterback, and after a midseason lull second-year running back Travis Etienne has hit his stride the past 2 weeks. This game isn't very meaningful for the Jaguars, as no matter what happens they will have to win in Week 18 against Tennessee if they want to win the AFC South and make the playoffs. Nonetheless, this is a young team and I'm sure Doug Pederson will want them to keep the positive momentum they've built over the last month or so. Houston has been more competitive in recent weeks, but Lawrence has been too efficient recently for me to think that the Jags will have a let-down game here. Jacksonville keeps rolling and Houston gets one step closer to the #1 overall pick in April.
Score Prediction: JAX 27 HOU 19
Carolina (6-9) @ Tampa Bay (7-8)
Line: Tampa Bay -4 O/U 40
The NFC South is a mess, and this matchup is critical for who comes out on top of the worst division in football. Carolina has stayed relatively competitive this year considering their low expectations coming into the season, and they defeated this Bucs team back in Week 7 21-3. Sam Darnold has actually played pretty efficient football since returning from injury in Week 12, and when Carolina gets their run game going they can be a tough team to beat. Last week, they ran for 320 yards against what had been the top rushing defense in the league in Detroit. Since Week 9, here are their rushing totals: 64, 232, 36, 185, 223, 21, 320. Their run game has either been non-existent or completely dominant, and this team's success is predicated on establishing the run. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has failed to look dominant in any aspect offensively all season. Things just feel off when watching this Bucs team, and it's a shame that they seem to only show urgency when they're down by 2 scores late in games. I'm tired of thinking that they're going to magically turn it around and play a full 60 minutes just because they have Tom Brady, so I'm taking the Panthers here on the road. The Panthers, with an interim head coach, are just playing better football here down the stretch.
Score Prediction: CAR 17 TB 13
Miami (8-7) @ New England (7-8)
Line: New England -2.5 O/U 41
Both of these teams have had such strange seasons since they faced each other in Week 1. Miami has gone from a team who looked like real contenders in the AFC to a team with massive question marks to end the season, while New England can't seem to find consistency on a week-to-week basis. In particular for Miami, Tua Tagovailoa's play has regressed tremendously since being considered an MVP candidate early on. Tagovailoa's entire season was encapsulated in just one game last week against Green Bay. In the first half he looked to be in full control of the offense, throwing beautiful deep passes and making quick decisions that allowed Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to shine. In the second half, however, Tagovailoa threw three back-breaking interceptions that would ultimately end up costing Miami the game. Tagovailoa suffered a concussion at the end of the first half in that game, and it's likely that the injury had an impact on how he played the rest of the way. Teddy Bridgewater will start in place of Tagovailoa this week in New England, and that plays a major factor in why I'm taking New England here. The Patriots still have a stout defense and I expect Belichick to have a solid gameplan against Bridgewater. Mac Jones and the offense has been underwhelming as a whole here in 2022, but I don't think they'll have to score much in this one.
Score Prediction: MIA 13 NE 16
Chicago (3-12) @ Detroit (7-8)
Line: Detroit -6 O/U 52
As mentioned in the Carolina-Tampa Bay preview, Detroit got ran all over by the Panthers last week. After allowing 167 yards combined on the ground over the previous 3 weeks, they gave up an astonishing 320 yards rushing to Carolina last week. I'm not sure if this awful showing by their run defense was an anomaly, but it sure makes picking them against the Bears a lot more difficult. There's been an average total score of 59(!) in 8 games so far at Ford Field in Detroit, so a shootout is expected here. Justin Fields is electric and the Bears feel due for a win after playing competitively all season and having the lead at halftime last week against Buffalo. I really want to take the Bears here, especially because their run game has been so solid all season. In the end I'm picking Detroit because their roster is far superior to Chicago's at this point. The Bears may find success on the ground, but Detroit's offensive line is elite and they should have their way with this Bears defense. Justin Fields may look superhuman at points in this game, but his receivers won't be able to help him enough for the Bears to win this game.
Score Prediction: CHI 27 DET 31
Cleveland (6-9) @ Washington (7-7-1)
Line: Washington -2.5 O/U 41
No matter how you look at it, this new Deshaun-Watson led offense for Cleveland has just not been good enough. The offense was scoring more points with Jacoby Brissett and I don't want to hear about "rust" for Watson. Deshaun had all offseason to practice with the team and has had months to study the playbook during his suspension. When you get paid $250 million guaranteed, the offense needs to score more points. The Browns have mustered 3 offensive touchdowns in 4 weeks since he took over in Week 13. Scoring touchdowns is generally a good thing in the NFL, and someone might want to let the $250-million dollar man know that or else that investment will look worse and worse by the day. Carson Wentz will start for the first time for the Commanders since getting injured and then subsequently benched in week 6. Taylor Heinicke gave Washington a spark when they desperately needed it following a 2-4 start, but the magic of Heinicke has ran out. Heinicke simply has too many physical limitations and he does not throw with NFL-level velocity. Wentz came into the game in the second half last week against San Francisco and played well. He certainly looked like he had been studying the playbook during his time on the bench. He played with more composure and confidence than we had seen earlier in the season, which is hopefully a sign of good things to come in Washington. This offense is ready to explode, with talent all over the field that is highlighted by a star-studded receiving corp of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson. It's time to see if Wentz can play with a chip on his shoulder or if he crumbles in the high-pressure situation of having to get this team to the playoffs in 2 must-win games down the stretch. Washington's run game should be able to help him out this week against an awful Cleveland run defense, and Washington will get after Watson defensively.
Score Prediction: CLE 17 WAS 23
Indianapolis (4-9-1) @ New York Giants (8-6-1)
Line: New York -5.5 O/U 39
This season could not end sooner for Colts fans. Indianapolis has ridden the quarterback carousel this year and Jim Irsay has made baffling decisions as owner, creating serious questions about this team's future. Who is going to want to coach this team after seeing the antics that Irsay has pulled from up top this year? Last week they started Nick Foles at quarterback for the first time this season, and the offense may have looked worse than it has all year. I don't ever want to see this team on primetime again. On the other side of the field, this Giants team continues to exceed expectations. Despite limited weapons on offense, Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll have done a fantastic job at getting the most out of the unit. Jones is playing himself into a second contract with the team, and I really think he deserves it. Time after time this year he has shown great accuracy and decision-making in key moments and I'm intrigued to see what he can do with an improved receiving corp. The Giants should get back on track here after a devastating loss in Minnesota last week. Jim Irsay should pay attention, the Giants are what a team with a real direction looks like.
Score Prediction: IND 6 NYG 24
Arizona (4-11) @ Atlanta (5-10)
Line: Atlanta -5.5 O/U 41
Atlanta has a formidable offensive line, especially in terms of run blocking. They've ran the ball the 4th most times out of any team this season and still average almost 5 yards a carry. Arizona has allowed an average of almost 130 yards on the ground the past 3 weeks, and they'll be without star box safety and team leader Budda Baker. With Colt McCoy still dealing with a concussion and Kyler Murray on IR, the Cardinals will start David Blough at quarterback this week. I expect Atlanta to keep establishing the run and win comfortably. The only reason this game matters is for each team's draft position in April.
Score Prediction: ARI 10 ATL 23
San Francisco (11-4) @ Las Vegas (6-9)
Line: San Francisco -9.5 O/U 43
The 49ers are one of the hottest teams in the league, having won 8 straight games and going 3-0 with rookie Brock Purdy starting at quarterback. Purdy has looked comfortable in Kyle Shanahan's offense and the 49ers have been able to stretch the field with big plays more consistently with him under center as opposed to Jimmy Garoppolo. They have the best defense in the NFL and are a true threat to make it to the Super Bowl in the NFC. The Raiders will be starting Jarret Stidham at quarterback this week, who followed Josh McDaniels from New England and has been backing up Derek Carr all year. Carr had underperformed in 2022 and was benched this week, with the organization making it clear that they're looking ahead to the future. Stidham stands no chance against this 49ers defense.
Score Prediction: SF 38 LV 0
New York Jets (7-8) @ Seattle (7-8) - LOCK OF THE WEEK
Line: New York -2 O/U 42
Both of these teams exceeded expectations to start the year, coming out of the gates with 6-3 records but dropping 5 of their last 6 games. Now with two remaining games, this is a must-win matchup for each of these franchises if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Jets defense is elite, but a lack of consistent quarterback play has been their downfall. The Zach Wilson experiment is officially over in New York, and Mike White will start this week after missing the past 2 games with a rib injury. White has played admirably in his few starts this year and the Jets offense has been markedly better with him at the helm. Geno Smith had a hot start to the season at quarterback for Seattle but has come back down to earth down the stretch. The Jets match up well here, with elite corners on the outside that should shut down Seattle's biggest threats in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (who may also not play, but I don't think it will make a difference). Seattle allows the 2nd most yards on the ground and I expect New York to take advantage and get back on track here.
Score Prediction: NYJ 20 SEA 13
Minnesota (12-3) @ Green Bay (7-8)
Line: Green Bay -3 O/U 47
Don't look now, but this Packers team has won 4 of its last 6 and is hitting its stride at the perfect time. With two divisional games to wrap up the year, Green Bay all but controls their own destiny in the race to get the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs. When these teams met in Week 1, Green Bay's offensive weapons were raw and unable to help Aaron Rodgers en route to scoring only 7 points. Now with the emergence of rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, this offense has looked better and better each week. Minnesota is 11-0 in one-score games this season, which is both impressive and unprecedented. Their defense has been an issue all season long, allowing the 2nd most yards per game and the 5th most points per game in the NFL. Justin Jefferson should get serious consideration for NFL MVP and it's a shame that the award revolves so much around quarterbacks. Even if Christian Watson is unable to play with a hip injury, I think Rodgers plays with a chip on his shoulder and comes up big in pivotal moments in this one. Green Bay wins and sets up a huge matchup versus Detroit next week that may decide who goes to the playoffs.
Score Prediction: MIN 23 GB 24
LA Rams (5-10) @ LA Chargers (8-6)
Line: Chargers -6.5 O/U 42
The Rams played their best game of the year on Christmas day, scoring 51 points against the Broncos. I'm not sure what to make of that game exactly. Had Denver completely given up on the season or have the Rams found something promising with this Baker Mayfield-led offense? I think it's a bit of both. I don't want to overreact to that game too much, but I have a weird feeling that the Chargers will blow this game. They're talented but I don't think they play to the best of their ability each week. Sean McVay is familiar with Brandon Staley, and I think even with a depleted roster he'll find a way to gut this one out and build more positive momentum for the Rams heading into 2023. My biggest hope for the future of this Chargers team is that they fire offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi at the end of this season. Justin Herbert has one of the best arms in the NFL, but the Chargers run the most screen plays out of any team in the NFL and do not play to Herbert's strengths. Lombardi has done this before, as he wasted some of Matthew Stafford's prime seasons in Detroit with meaningless checkdowns. Call this the upset of the week.
Score Prediction: LAR 24 LAC 23
Pittsburgh (7-8) @ Baltimore (10-5)
Line: Baltimore -2.5 O/U 35
This Steelers-Ravens rivalry doesn't have nearly the same intrigue as it did 10 years ago. These teams used to play nasty games with dominant defenses, but both of these teams this season just haven't passed the eye test for me. The Ravens will be without Lamar Jackson again, and I simply can't understand how this game got flexed to Sunday Night Football. I'm taking the Ravens here because their defense is solid, but this game is a snooze.
Score Prediction: PIT 13 BAL 16
Buffalo (12-3) @ Cincinnati (11-4) - GAME OF THE WEEK
Line: Buffalo -1 O/U 49
Now THIS is what a primetime game should look like. Two of the top teams in the AFC are battling here for a chance at the 1-seed in the AFC. Cincinnati hasn't lost since Halloween and Buffalo has looked like Super Bowl contenders all year long. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have both played like top-5 quarterbacks this season and this is arguably the most highly-anticipated game of the NFL regular season. There are no real glaring weaknesses for either team, but it's concerning for Cincinnati that La'el Collins will miss the rest of the season at right tackle. The most important part of the streak that the Bengals have been on is the improvement of their offensive line, and it will be pivotal for them to have an answer at right tackle if they want to make another run to the Super Bowl. For the Bills, I'm a bit concerned about their lack of weapons outside of Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen does as good a job as any quarterback at elevating the talent around him, but in these huge matchups against other contenders they'll need someone else to step up to take the load off of Allen and Diggs. Their rushing attack has been solid at times this year, but the Bengals have been great against the run since defensive tackle DJ Reader returned from injury a few weeks ago. The Bengals have a plethora of weapons offensively, with two #1 receivers in Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins and one of the best slot receivers in the league in Tyler Boyd. I think their ability to spread the ball around and find different ways to score will get the Bengals a huge win here on Monday night.
Score Prediction: BUF 24 CIN 28
-All betting lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
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