Post-Draft Top 3 Running Back Tiers - Fantasy Football 2023

Here are my top 3 tiers of fantasy football running backs going into 2023. I prefer to rank players in different tiers because it helps me understand where there's a cutoff in terms of how I feel about different players going into a fantasy draft. In parenthesis next to players' names will be each player's ranking on Underdog Fantasy at the moment so you can get a sense of where I differ from the consensus. I'll have the players in order of who I'd prefer, but I wouldn't have an issue with anyone preferring one player over another in each individual tier. I'll be specifically ranking these players as if it was a half-PPR (.5 points per reception) league.

Tier 1

1. Christian McCaffrey - SF (1)

- There is not much of a conversation to be had about Christian McCaffrey. He's a fantasy goldmine when he's on the field and is now in year 2 with the best offensive mind in football as his head coach. CMC finished as the RB2 last season in half-PPR and was the RB1 from weeks 8-17 after being traded to San Francisco and becoming their lead back. If McCaffrey stays healthy like he did in 2022, it's almost a guarantee that he finishes as the top running back in 2023.

2. Bijan Robinson - ATL (2)

- The prospect of Bijan Robinson warrants more discussion, considering he's my 2nd ranked running back without ever taking a snap in the NFL. He's the best running back prospect to come out of college since Saquon Barkley, who was also being taken highly in fantasy drafts his rookie year. Drafting year-1 Saquon paid off, and that was with Barkley playing behind a bottom-3 offensive line on a horrific Giants team. Bijan Robinson comes into the league with high draft capital (8th overall in the 2023 draft) and other-worldly talent, all the while playing behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in football with the Falcons. To get an idea of how productive Bijan could be behind this offensive line, it's relevant to look at how Tyler Allgeier (5th round pick and rookie last season) produced when he took over the backfield. Allgeier started getting more opportunities in the offense in Week 15, and from Weeks 15-17 he had at least 18 opportunities (carries + targets). With this increased workload, Allgeier shined and scored over 13 half-PPR points each week. Allgeier is no slouch, but Bijan Robinson is on a completely different level as a prospect. If Allgeier can put up those numbers, Robinson's ceiling is almost unlimited in this offense. The Falcons were committed to the run game last season, averaging 32.88(!!!) rushing attempts per game. Bijan will get the vast majority of carries on a run-heavy team next season, and that in combination with his elite talent makes him about as safe of a fantasy asset as they come. Robinson could go 1st overall in your drafts and I'd have no issue with it.

Tier 2

3. Josh Jacobs - LV (9)

- People are way too low on Josh Jacobs. He finished as the RB3 last year and people are treating it as some anomaly. Jacobs has always looked fantastic when given the ball, but it was Josh McDaniels that finally utilized him as a 3-down workhorse last season to unlock his true fantasy potential. Last time I checked, McDaniels is still around and Jacobs is still an elite talent. With Jacobs on the franchise tag, I have no doubt that the Raiders will continue to utilize him as the main force in their offense. Opportunity and talent are the name of the game for running backs in fantasy, and Jacobs has both. He's also still only 25 even though it feels like he's a seasoned veteran.

4. Saquon Barkley - NYG (5)

- Saquon Barkley is still an elite player, and he showed that while remaining healthy last season in New York. The Giants made moves in the draft to solidify the interior of their offensive line, and I fully believe that top-5 pick Evan Neal will develop in year 2 and be a stud right tackle. Saquon was the RB5 last season, and the only reason I have him below Josh Jacobs is because Daniel Jones has proved to be a formidable runner. He'll likely vulture some touchdowns from Saquon in 2023, but there's very few reasons to doubt Barkley with what I presume to be the best offensive line he's ever played behind in the pros.

5. Nick Chubb - CLE (6)

- Chubb has climbed up rankings post-draft, as it's become clear that 2023 will be his first season in Cleveland where he'll have no competition for touches in the backfield with Kareem Hunt gone in free agency. Chubb was the RB6 last year, but I do have some valid concerns with Chubb going into next season. From weeks 13-17, Chubb was the RB22. Normally that change in production could be seen as just a string of bad luck, but with Deshaun Watson taking over at quarterback in week 13 it becomes clear that there was a negative correlation between Watson starting and Chubb's production. Will Watson return to his 2020 form after making the Browns offense noticeably worse while under center down the stretch in 2022? If he does return to form, do the Browns become pass-heavy and stunt Chubb's fantasy value? I'm agreeing with the consensus and keeping Chubb within my top 6 because he's a home run hitter and his ceiling without Hunt is astronomical, but there's reasons to be wary going into 2023.

6. Rhamondre Stevenson - NE (11)

- Oh boy, I'm betting on a Patriots running back. I think Stevenson will have a massive breakout campaign without Damien Harris holding him back in New England. In games where Stevenson had over 20 opportunities (6 games last season), his lowest outputs were an 11.1-point game in which the Patriots scored no offensive touchdowns and a 14 point game vs. Indianapolis. Stevenson didn't score less than 17.8 points in the rest of his games with over 20 opportunities. The Patriots love to throw to their running backs, and Stevenson has shown that he's a phenomenal every-down back. This gives Stevenson a very high floor, and I believe the offense will run through him next season. Rhamondre was very effective last year with Matt Patricia leading the offense, so imagine what he can do with a bigger role and a real offensive coordinator in Bill O'Brien.

7. Derrick Henry - TEN (8)

- What is this, the 4th year in a row that we're asking whether Derrick Henry will finally fall off? That might be an exaggeration, but I thought Henry looked a bit slower last year and I expect rookie running back Tyjae Spears to take some touches away from Henry this upcoming season. Still, the king will likely remain a king in an offense that is still built around the run game. Tennessee added *checks notes* NOTHING???? to their receiver room this offseason. Bold move by the Titans, and at the very least it adds some clarity as to whether or not this offense will still run through Henry in 2023. Henry was still the RB4 last season despite playing behind a porous offensive line that should be improved with the addition of 1st-round pick Peter Skoronski.

Tier 3

8. Austin Ekeler - LAC (3)

- Yes, Ekeler is a fantasy darling and was the RB1 in 2022. He's scored over 20 touchdowns each of the last two seasons and has some of the best hands out of any running back in the league, I get it. But there's a couple reasons why I'm lower on Ekeler than most and expect his numbers to come down to earth in 2023. Ekeler was the benefactor of an extremely conservative offense over the last two years under Joe Lombardi, who is no longer the offensive coordinator in LA. Lombardi consistently looked to target Ekeler in the passing game despite having a quarterback in Justin Herbert that throws one of the best deep balls in the entire league. There's a reason LA moved on from Lombardi; they had to change philosophies in order to maximize the talent on their offense. With Kellen Moore coming in to run the offense, I expect LA's offensive output to improve while Ekeler's fantasy numbers dip. This coaching change, in addition to adding Quentin Johnson as a YAC specialist in the 1st round of the 2023 draft, has me doubting Ekeler's 2023 outlook despite his elite talent. He'll still be the lead back in a high powered offense, but don't expect Ekeler to average 7.5 targets a game or score 20 touchdowns again in 2023.

9. Jonathan Taylor - IND (4)

- I understand how talented Jonathan Taylor is, but I don't understand how people are ranking him as their 4th running back off the board this year. He'll most likely be starting for a team led by a raw rookie quarterback, a rookie head coach and an offensive line that was AWFUL last season. I know Taylor got hurt last year and, admittedly, it's probably skewing my perception to an extent. But I'm not just going to bet on a bounce-back year when the situation around him has not improved at all. Even if the offense somehow gets better with an extremely raw QB prospect in Anthony Richardson, I expect Richardson to steal touchdown opportunities within the 10-yard line with his elite athleticism.

10. Breece Hall - NYJ (10)

- Breece Hall could very well end up as the RB1 this season because of his elite talent and an improved offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. He's a tough fantasy prospect to project coming off of a torn ACL, but I'm comfortable with where he's being taken in fantasy drafts this offseason with the weighted risk of his injury. Hall looked like a superstar once given the full workload last season, and his production was solid despite dealing with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL during that 4-game stretch.

11. Tony Pollard - DAL (7)

- I'm not as high on Pollard as others, but I certainly see the argument for him going as RB7 on Underdog at the moment. He's been a top-5 fantasy back every time Ezekiel Elliott has been hurt for the Cowboys, and now Elliott is a free agent. I'm concerned about Pollard's recovery from his fractured fibula and high-ankle sprain he suffered in the Divisional Round this past season, and I also expect the Cowboys offense to take a step back with Mike McCarthy calling the plays. Even so, he's ultra-talented and the Cowboys offensive line remains solid. But don't be surprised if Jerry Jones can't resist bringing Zeke back late in the offseason...

- All Underdog Rankings are as of 5/10/2023