Underdog Fantasy is an app where you can draft fantasy football teams pretty much all year. With a few weeks remaining in this past NFL regular season, they opened draft rooms for Way-Too-Early 2023 fantasy leagues. In this article, I'll be highlighting 3 players who could make or break your fantasy season in 2023. Keep in mind with these Underdog rankings, their format is quite different from your standard home leagues. It uses a best ball format, where each week your best-performing players on your team will automatically be "started" for you. This means there is no in-season management, you just draft your team and hope for the best. With this, their rankings are different in two ways. First, upside is key. Guys that may not be as consistent (say, Mike Williams for example) may go higher in these drafts because they can score you 30 points on any given week, while you're not nearly as devastated by their dud weeks because your other players will be started ahead of them. Second, it's a 3 WR format, so receivers are generally considered more valuable and will be higher on Underdog draft boards than other standard formats. It's never too early to get an edge on the competition, so let's get into it.
Garrett Wilson - NYJ WR
ADP: 23.6
Garrett Wilson overcame wildly inconsistent quarterback play in 2022 en route to putting up the best numbers out of any rookie wide receiver. By my eye test as well, he was far and away the best rookie receiver in the league after being drafted 10th overall. Underdog has him slated as the 11th receiver on their board in fantasy drafts, so clearly I was not the only one who was greatly impressed by the young star. So why is Garrett Wilson a wild-card? His ADP shows that he is expected to take a sizable leap in production from last year, when he finished as WR19 and averaged 10.2 PPG in half-PPR formats. For a team like the Jets who have no immediate answer at the quarterback position, drafting Wilson at the end of the 2nd round/beginning of the 3rd round may seem like a tricky proposition. Looking at the three receivers going after him in the rankings (Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, and DK Metcalf) and their relatively stable quarterback situations, I could imagine many people being hesitant to buy in to Wilson's unknown situation. Wilson could end up being very inconsistent again if left with no real answer at quarterback, but could also be one of the best receivers in football next year with an upgrade at the position.
Final verdict: The Jets recognize the situation they are in, with an elite defense and a roster that is ready to compete in the AFC if they were to find a quarterback. I believe that they will lay it all on the table and offer the Packers a trade that they can't refuse in order to acquire Aaron Rodgers. They already brought in Nathaniel Hackett, Rodgers' former offensive coordinator, in a move that I presume is aimed at getting the 3-time MVP to come to New York. With this move, Garrett Wilson will put up monster numbers and will be seen as an easy top-10 pick in next year's fantasy drafts. Even if the Jets can't pull off a trade for Rodgers, they will find a way to upgrade at quarterback and Wilson has the talent to strive in just about any situation that doesn't include Zach Wilson. I'm all in on buying Garrett Wilson at his current price, as steep as it is at the moment. Once that upgrade at QB comes, Wilson will be getting drafted in the mid-2nd round. Buy him now.
Calvin Ridley - JAX WR
ADP: 42.7
The last time Ridley played a full season was in 2020 when he put up massive numbers. He was the WR4 to end that season and averaged 15.8 PPG. He took a break from football in 2021 to focus on his mental health, and was suspended for an entire year in 2022 for gambling on an NFL game. He was traded for conditional draft picks in the middle of this past season, as Jacksonville decided to take a swing on an ultra-talented receiver to help Trevor Lawrence continue his ascension into stardom. His off-field struggles already make Ridley a wild-card going into 2023, and we can't just assume that he will be the same player in a new offense where there are other weapons (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram) to spread the ball around to. He was largely the only receiver Atlanta could trust in 2020 as Julio Jones dealt with injuries for the majority of the season.
Final verdict: Drafting Ridley at his current price in the middle of the 4th round is truly shooting for the stars, and I'm all for it. Trevor Lawrence will continue to improve and should be the best quarterback that Ridley has ever played with. Even with other targets in this offense, Ridley is supremely talented and will demand targets. I'm willing to risk whiffing on a pick in the 4th round, especially when looking at the other receivers going below him (Christian Watson, Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Michael Pittman) who have their own fair share of concerns. None of those guys have close to the same potential that this Ridley-Lawrence connection could provide. If Ridley is the same player as he was in 2020, he will be a true league-winner for the 2023 season that you can get in the 4th round.
D'Andre Swift - DET RB
ADP: 43.2
If you owned D'Andre Swift in 2022, I don't think you'll ever reinvest in him again. Swift is electric every time he touches the ball and is in a great situation with one of the best offensive lines in the entire league, but he has two major problems. He can't stay healthy and for some reason his coaches don't trust him. Maybe the Lions took away his touches to preserve his health? Maybe they were annoyed by his attitude off the field? No one really knows, but the Lions essentially benched Swift for the entire second half of the season after suffering an injury that kept him off the field for a few weeks early on. Over the last 9 weeks of the season, Swift had only 5 weeks where he got over 10 opportunities (rush attempts + targets). Not only that, but Jamaal Williams got just about every goal-line carry and broke Barry Sanders' single-season touchdown record for Detroit. Williams is a free agent, and there's no telling whether Detroit will decide to re-sign him or not. The team's running backs coach Deuce Staley recently parted ways with Detroit to join Frank Reich in Carolina, and that may have an impact on Swift's playing time as well.
Final verdict: Swift is okay value for where his ADP is (middle of the 4th round). He truly could be a league-winner if he stays healthy and if Detroit makes him the lead back. Those are two MASSIVE ifs, especially considering he hasn't managed to stay healthy on a consistent basis in any season through 3 years in the NFL. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking him in the 4th round, as upside is what ultimately wins you championships. Personally, I can't see myself taking Swift unless he begins to fall in drafts. It could absolutely burn me, but I don't want to be stuck with a guy who is injury prone and who week-in and week-out will scare me with no real idea of how much he will get the ball.
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