The Jaguars have won 3 of their last 4 games against some formidable opponents (Dallas, Tennesse, Baltimore), with their only loss coming against one of the hottest teams in the league in the Detroit Lions. After a tumultuous 3-7 start to the year, Jacksonville (6-8) has found themselves in control of their own destiny in the AFC South. They're only 1 game behind Tennessee, whom they play in a pivotal Week 18 matchup that could decide who goes to the playoffs as the 4-seed in the AFC. Much of the Jags success has coincided with the development of 2021 1st overall pick Trevor Lawrence, who has played the best two games of his NFL career over the last two weeks. Lawrence threw his first interception in 6 weeks last week against Dallas, a game in which Jacksonville trailed 21-7. In the face of adversity, Lawrence showed that he can bounce back from his mistakes as he led the Jags to a 40-34 OT win in a gotta-have-it matchup. Lawrence has all the traits of a superstar quarterback, and it seems as if he's finally putting it all together in his sophomore season.
On the other hand, the Jets (7-7) are trending in the opposite direction after an impressive 6-3 start to the season. Zach Wilson, who was drafted one pick after Trevor Lawrence in 2021, has not shown the same development Lawrence has in his sophomore campaign. Wilson was benched following a loss in New England in Week 11, but will be back starting for New York for the second week in a row after new starter Mike White suffered a rib injury amidst a loss to the Bills in Week 14. Wilson was not objectively terrible last week against Detroit, which is an improvement from how he was playing early in the season. Nonetheless, Wilson is still struggling to make some of the easy throws that the Jets need out of their second-overall pick. The Jets were winning in spite of Wilson early in the season, with one of the best defenses in the league led by rookie 1st round pick Sauce Gardner at cornerback. The way Sauce is playing as a rookie is unprecedented, as he looks like one of the best players in the league at a position where it is notoriously difficult to transition from the college ranks to the NFL. The Jets have to win this game in order to stay in the AFC Wild Card hunt. They are one game behind Miami in the race for the 7-seed in what should be a tight race the rest of the way.
Weather should be a factor in this game with heavy rain in the forecast. This bodes well for the Jets, who will want to run the ball effectively to help their struggling second-year quarterback. I think that in combination with the weather, the Jets match up quite well against this Jaguars squad. The Jags run defense is one of the worst in the league, and Zonovan Knight has been an effective runner for New York since taking over for Breece Hall (ACL tear) and supplanting Michael Carter as the team's lead back. On the other hand, the Jets have a solid run defense that should stifle Travis Etienne, who has been largely inefficient on the ground for the Jags over the last few weeks. This will force Lawrence to have to win the game by himself in a game where the weather will not be friendly to either passing game. With the combination of lockdown corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, the Jets should be able to keep Zay Jones and Christian Kirk in check as the duo has done all season against some of the best receivers in the NFL. It's gonna be a slugfest, but the Jets have the more well-rounded roster and I believe that head coach Robert Saleh will be able to find a way to stop this 3-game losing streak. They'll commit to the run, play solid defense and do their best to not put too much on Zach Wilson's shoulders.
Score Prediction: Jags 16 - NYJ 19
Side note: Who would have thought this matchup would be so meaningful this late in the season? It's the Jags and the Jets, and it's... dare I say... fun? This is why we love the NFL.
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