Gonna be some short write-ups for the games this week. Enjoy the weekend and Happy Holidays!
Atlanta (5-9) @ Baltimore (9-5)
Line: Baltimore -6.5 O/U 34.5
Baltimore inexplicably got away from the run game last week in Cleveland while averaging 6 yards per carry. They learn from their mistakes this week and smother Desmond Ridder in his second start.
Score Prediction: ATL 10 BAL 16
Buffalo (11-3) @ Bears (3-11)
Line: Buffalo -8 O/U 40.5
It feels like the same story every week for Chicago. Justin Fields makes some spectacular plays and they cover the spread while their defense lets them down. The story doesn't change this week, but I think Chicago has the lead at multiple points in the game. There will be freezing temperatures which should help the game stay close. This is the almost-upset game of the week.
Score Prediction: BUF 27 - CHI 26
Seattle (7-7) @ Kansas City (11-3)
Line: Kansas City -10 O/U 49.5
Another game that should be affected by cold weather. Seattle simply doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Kansas City, especially with the injury to Tyler Lockett last week. Chiefs keep rolling.
Score Prediction: SEA 24 KC 35
Cincinnati (10-4) @ New England (7-7)
Line: Cincinnati -3.5 O/U 41.5
After a horrific ending to last weeks game, the Patriots are going to come out with their heads on fire in this one. With Tom Brady, this team thrived off of negative press and I think they'll carry some of that same energy with them in the first half of this game. Joe Burrow will find a way in the second half and the difference in offensive talent between these two teams will be too much for New England to overcome.
Score Prediction: CIN 21 NE 20
Detroit (7-7) @ Carolina (5-9)
Line: Detroit -2.5 O/U 43.5
The Lions are on a roll and I think they match up well against the Panthers. Carolina's strength is in the run game, and Detroit has been dominant defending the run over the last month. Carolina's defense is sneaky good, but the Lions are simply a better team in the trenches.
Score. Prediction DET 24 CAR 13
Houston (1-12) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Line: Tennessee -3 O/U 35.5
Malik Willis will make his second career start at quarterback for the Titans following Ryan Tannehill's injury a week ago. Willis has looked like the raw prospect he was billed to be in his short time as a starter this season, and I expect Derrick Henry to get the ball at least 30 times. Houston's offense has found success the last two weeks with Jeff Driskell playing wildcat QB, and I think the Texans will be able to make enough stops against a one-dimensional offense to pull off the upset.
Score Prediction: HOU 17 TEN 14
New Orleans (5-9) @ Cleveland (6-8)
Line: Cleveland -3.5 O/U 32.5
In another cold weather game, the logical move for this Saints team would be to run Alvin Kamara over and over again against the worst run defense in the league. Unfortunately, there hasn't been a lot of logic in the Saints game plans all year. Even without Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry this week, they'll still find a way to ignore Kamara. Cleveland gets center Ethan Pocic back from IR this week, which should help get their run game going for the first time since he was last in the lineup. This is gonna be an ugly one.
Score Prediction: NO 10 CLE 14
New York Giants (8-5) @ Minnesota (11-3)
Line: Minnesota -4 O/U 48
After making the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, the Vikings are due for a let down. I think New York matches up well with Minnesota, who's porous secondary should allow Daniel Jones to get things going despite not having much help at receiver. Saquon Barkley has a big game and Kayvon Thibodeaux keeps showing why he was a top 5 pick for New York.
Score Prediction: NYG 30 MIN 29
Washington (7-6) @ San Francisco (10-4)
Line: San Francisco -6.5 O/U 37.5
There's not much to say about this one. Taylor Heinicke will not be able to handle the 49ers ferocious defense and Kyle Shanahan will get his last revenge shot against Dan Snyder (before he's hopefully ousted as owner). With San Francisco at home, I don't think this one will be close. My "boldest" prediction for this game is that we see Carson Wentz in the second half for Washington, or at the very least he will be the starter next week against Cleveland.
Score Prediction: WAS 6 SF 30
Philadelphia (13-1) @ Dallas (10-4)
Line: Dallas -4.5 O/U 46.5
I actually don't think the absence of Jalen Hurts for the Eagles will have as massive of an impact as it seems like it would on the surface. This isn't because I think Gardner Minshew is as good or better than him by any means, but Minshew is one of the best spot starters you can have in the league. He will also be playing in honor of the legacy of Mike Leach and I think we see some special moments from him in Dallas. Dallas' defense hasn't been the dominant unit we've come to expect the past two weeks either. The Eagles are still the all-around more talented team than Dallas, and they win the division here with their backup QB.
Score Prediction: PHI 30 DAL 28
Las Vegas (6-8) @ Pittsburgh (6-8)
Line: Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 38
Pittsburgh's defense stifles Derek Carr on a cold Saturday night, and Kenny Pickett has an efficient game against a bad defense in his first game back from a concussion. The Steelers play hard in the memory of Franco Harris, who passed away two days ago and will have his number retired at halftime.
Score Prediction: LV 13 PIT 17
Green Bay (6-8) @ Miami (8-6)
Line: Miami -4.5 O/U 50
There were some good signs on Monday night from Green Bay that they might have multiple good options on the outside for Aaron Rodgers to work with. Romeo Doubs looked solid after coming off the IR, and Christian Watson has been on a tear for the past month. Green Bay's defense has been underwhelming this season, but Aaron Rodgers has something to prove and I believe he'll win this one in a shootout.
Score Prediction: GB 38 MIA 35
Denver (4-10) @ LA Rams (4-11)
Line: Denver -2.5 O/U 36.5
During this game, feel free to eat your Christmas meal with the family. You won't be missing much. This Broncos season has been unimaginably disappointing and the Rams are trotting out their practice squad every week. Broncos win because their defense is good, but not even fans of these teams want to watch this game. Wait, does LA have fans or are they back rooting for the Cowboys?
Score Prediction: DEN 16 LAR 13
Tampa Bay (6-8) @ Arizona (4-10)
Line: Tampa Bay -7.5 O/U 40.5
It's honestly impressive for the Cardinals to somehow be more unwatchable than this Bucs team this season. Both teams play uninspired football, but at least the Bucs have won something in the past. The Cards are down to their 3rd string quarterback, but it couldn't get much worse for them anyways. It's a travesty that the Bucs will still be winning the NFC South after this week. Can we just replace them with the next best wild-card record in the NFC?
Score Prediction: TB 27 ARI 10
MNF: LA Chargers (8-6) @ Indianapolis (4-9)
Line: LAC -4.5 O/U 45.5
The Chargers will run away with this game, even with their propensity to keep games close when they really shouldn't be. This Colts offense is an eyesore, but I think they'll be more fun with Nick Foles. They'll be down big early but make it look respectable in the end.
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