Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-3)
On paper, this game favors the Vikings in terms of coaching, personnel, and overall record. However, even at home the Vikings are only favored by 3.5 points against a Colts team who has struggled all season. Despite Minnesota's stellar 10-3 record, they have a negative point differential (-1) and allow the 9th most points per game (24.1) to opposing offenses. This is not to say that Minnesota is not a good team, but it shows that their 10-3 record comes with unanswered questions. Coming off a loss to Detroit, I expect Minnesota to come out and play inspired football. On the other side of this matchup, the Colts haven't found any true consistency on offense throughout the season. Matt Ryan has not been the savior they were looking for in the offseason, but he should have success against a porous Minnesota defense that had given up the most yards in the NFL (5,248) prior to Thursday night's game. If the Colts offensive line can protect Matt Ryan, Indianapolis should be able to keep this game close at the very least. Ultimately, the Vikings (and Justin Jefferson in particular) will make enough plays to win and avoid a second straight loss.
Score Prediction: IND 20 - MIN 23
Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)
The Browns come into this game as 2.5 point favorites over the AFC-North leading Ravens. The betting line and the records of these two teams do not correlate, and that can be attributed to Lamar Jackson being unavailable for the Ravens due to injury. Quarterback Tyler Huntley played well in Jackson's absence last season, but the Ravens offense as a whole is worse than they were at this point last season. Star tight end Mark Andrews has struggled to make plays for Baltimore without other offensive weapons to help dictate coverage. Last year Huntley had Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman to help on the outside, and the offense was able to keep things together despite losing their starting quarterback. A 36-year-old Desean Jackson and castaway Demarcus Robinson aren't going to cut it as receivers on the outside for a team looking to compete with a backup quarterback. Huntley started last week against Pittsburgh and is also nursing an injury from that game, which may limit his ability to run. Despite his injury, I still expect to see the Ravens try to run the ball as much as possible against a Cleveland defense that is ranked 30th in rush defense DVOA*. I don't think the Ravens will have enough firepower to keep up as Deshaun Watson gets more and more comfortable with the offense in Cleveland.
Score Prediction: BAL 17 - CLE 23
Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3)
A few weeks ago, this game would have been considered a legitimate marquee matchup between two teams seen as contenders in the AFC. The Dolphins early-season magic has seemed to disappear over the last two weeks, reflected by the fact that they are 7-point underdogs against a Buffalo team that they defeated in Week 3. Up until the last two weeks, Miami had been undefeated in games where Tua Tagovailoa had started and finished the game at QB. Both the 49ers and Chargers' defense smothered Miami's offense that was seemingly unstoppable with the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It is hard to imagine Miami re-gaining their early-season offensive success in a December game at Buffalo, where it looks like the weather won't be doing Miami any favors. The Bills have not been particularly impressive in recent weeks, but their home field advantage in December is unlike almost any other. I expect their offense to find success despite poor weather conditions, as Josh Allen will still be able to run the ball and has an arm that can cut through any amount of wind. Tua Tagovailoa does not share these same physical traits, and it will be the reason why Miami struggles to keep this one close. Buffalo will avenge their Week 3 loss in Miami in commanding fashion.
Score Prediction: MIA 14 - BUF 38
*DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality
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