Super Bowl 57 Prediction

Bengals over 49ers

I have no idea why there were so many people doubting Cincinnati's chances of being a perennial contender before the season started. The Bengals did not just fall backwards into winning the AFC last year, they flat-out earned it. They have all the pieces in place to compete for the Super Bowl year in and year out. What separates the Bengals from other AFC contenders is simple to me: a plethora of weapons and a chip on their shoulder.

As opposed to Buffalo and Kansas City, the Bengals have two bonafide #1 receivers in Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins. Leaving either one of these guys on an island with any cornerback is a death sentence for your defense, and Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst are formidable weapons in the middle of the field that add a nice cherry on top of this offense. Joe Mixon runs hard between the tackles and is a great check-down option with the ability to make people miss after the catch. The Bengals run a shotgun-heavy scheme, a scheme in which Joe Burrow thrived at LSU. Burrow rarely ever turns his back to the defense in shotgun, and his elite processing and accuracy paired with the weapons around him makes this unit almost impossible to defend. Buffalo has Stefon Diggs and Kansas City has Travis Kelce (and maybe Kadarius Toney if he stays healthy), but no other weapons on either team really stresses defenses enough to put extra attention on them.

Zac Taylor and this Bengals team refused to continue playing in Week 17 on Monday night against the Bills following the tragic scene on the field with Damar Hamlin. The NFL wanted them to keep playing, but the Bengals knew it was not appropriate. If the Bengals had continued on and won that game, they would have ended the season as the 2nd seed in the AFC and would have been guaranteed the chance to host the Bills in round 2 of the playoffs. The NFL tried to compromise, but none of the scenarios they suggested would have allowed the Bengals an opportunity to host a 2nd round playoff game. The NFL didn't even allow a vote by the owners to have a 2nd round Bills-Bengals matchup be played at a neutral site. Cincinnati's coaches and players have voiced their displeasure at how the NFL handled the situation, and I believe this team will ride that motivation into a 2nd straight Super Bowl appearance. The Bengals are a scary team on their own, but giving them an underdog narrative to work with and a chip on their shoulder should scare the rest of the league.

The Bengals fell short last year in large part because of their offensive line, a unit that they improved dramatically over the offseason. I don't think that losing La'el Collins at right tackle will have a massive negative impact, as Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at navigating a collapsing pocket. He may not have the same athletic tools as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, but his un-teachable instincts allow him to avoid pressure better than anyone with his athletic profile. The Bengals signed right guard Alex Cappa over the offseason, and he is expected to miss their first-round game against Baltimore with an injury. Baltimore will likely still be without star quarterback Lamar Jackson for that contest, so it's a game I think the Bengals can handle even with a bruised and battered right side of the offensive line.

Speaking of backup quarterbacks, the Bills will also be facing a second-string quarterback in round 1 of the playoffs when they face Miami with Teddy Bridgewater. With the Bengals and Bills hosting backup quarterbacks in the Wild Card round, it all but guarantees that they will meet each other in Buffalo in round 2. This will be the Bengals biggest test on the road to the Super Bowl, but I'm not worried about Joe Burrow and crowd noise. I've seen him go to Kansas City and win an AFC Championship and I've seen him go to Alabama and win a massive game featuring the top 2 teams in college football. He IS Joe Cool.

While I believe the Bengals have the best set of weapons in the AFC and a chip on their shoulder, I'd be remiss to not mention what I think is the best defense out of the contenders in their conference. The Bengals haven't missed a beat with the loss of starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie earlier in the season. Cincinnati's defense is a unit best-defined as a sum of its parts. It is well-coached with talent at every level and tends to get better as each game progresses. Logan Wilson, Germaine Pratt and Akeem Davis-Gaither make up what is quietly one of the better linebacking groups in the NFL with an ability to stop the run and add versatility in coverage. DJ Reader is one of the most underrated defensive tackles in the league and Trey Hendrickson seems to show up in the biggest moments coming off the edge. Jessie Bates and Von Bell are a solid safety pairing and Mike Hilton is one of the best and most physical slot corners in the NFL. I've liked what I've seen out of Cameron Taylor-Britt in replacement of Awuzie, and all in all there aren't any glaring holes on this defense. Kansas City's defense has been horrific all season and the Bills don't have the same pass-rushing prowess from earlier in the year when they still had Von Miller. If either of those teams want to get consistent pressure on Joe Burrow, they'll have to blitz him. With the amount of options the Bengals have to throw the ball to, blitzing Cincinnati is extremely difficult as you'll be testing the guys on the back-end to hold up in coverage against elite weapons.

I think Cincinnati will end up meeting San Francisco in Super Bowl 57, a rematch of Super Bowls 16 and 23 where the 49ers prevailed twice. Coincidentally, these teams' matchup in last year's regular season led to Cincinnati morphing into the elite offense they are now. Zac Taylor ran an offense that didn't put a lot on Joe Burrow's plate, refusing to be aggressive and running on first downs from under center far too often. You could argue that it was for Joe's own good, coming off an ACL tear behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, but it was severely capping the upside of this offense. Down 2 scores in the 4th quarter against San Francisco, Zac was forced to allow Burrow to throw on every play. This resulted in the best drives they had all game, with Burrow making clutch plays and leading the comeback to force overtime. In overtime, Zac Taylor started being conservative again by running the ball while in field goal range and it cost the Bengals the game. They only mustered a field goal on the opening possession of overtime that was followed by a 49ers touchdown to end the game. Taylor apologized after the game and said he needed to be more aggressive. This led to an improved offense that got them to the Super Bowl in 2022 and makes them contenders once again this season.

Rookie 7th-round pick Brock Purdy has elevated the 49ers offense since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo and hasn't flinched with the opportunity to lead a team built to win the Super Bowl. Out of all the teams in these 2023 playoffs, only the 49ers have the weapons to match up with Cincinnati's. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk make up what is arguably the greatest group of yards-after-catch players we've ever seen on one team in NFL history. Seriously, that's no exaggeration. With Kyle Shanahan pulling the strings, this 49ers offense is a headache to try and slow down. Pair that with what has been the league's best defense statistically all season and this 49ers team feels unstoppable in what is an otherwise weak conference in the NFC. Philadelphia will put up a major fight in the NFC Championship, but San Francisco is on fire and will have less pressure on them than the 1-seeded Eagles at home.

San Francisco will come into the playoffs extremely hot, but I do think that their defense has benefitted from an awfully easy schedule here down the stretch. They allowed 44 points to the Chiefs the last time they lost a game in Week 7, and since then they haven't met a team that comes close to having the offensive firepower that the Bengals have. When they played the Chargers, LA was missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. They also played the Cardinals twice without Kyler Murray in this stretch. I'll give them credit for beating Miami at home while Miami was still firing on all cylinders offensively, but Tua and that offensive line are not nearly as talented as what the Bengals have at those respective positions. I'll also give them a pass for getting absolutely lit up by Jarret Stidham because it's difficult to gameplan for a quarterback without seeing him much, but allowing 34 points to that Raiders team definitely tells me that this 49ers defense isn't perfect.

In this Super Bowl matchup, I think it comes down to the wire and which quarterback can make the biggest plays at the most crucial times. Both Purdy and Burrow will eventually have to make plays out of structure, and I strongly believe that Burrow will have the advantage in that department. Kyle Shanahan will be the better coach in this matchup, but until the 49ers find a quarterback that can truly create on his own it will be difficult for his team to end the season as Super Bowl champions. Considering the talented quarterbacks that will make the Super Bowl every year in the AFC, I think Shanahan was aware of this and it's the reason why he mortgaged the future for a quarterback with high upside like Trey Lance. The Bengals play smart, determined and explosive football here and bring the Lombardi trophy back to Cincinnati for the first time ever.

Final Score Prediction: CIN 26 SF 24

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