Doug Pederson returns to Kansas City to face his former mentor Andy Reid in a game that looks to be very entertaining on paper. Neither of these defenses provide anything to write home about and both Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are playing at a high level; I expect this game to be very high-scoring. When these teams met in Week 10, Jacksonville (and Trevor Lawrence specifically) hadn't hit their stride yet in 2022. The Chiefs won 27-17 while basically sleeping through the 4th quarter. I expect Jacksonville to put up a bigger fight here, but for Kansas City to match them blow-for-blow and eventually put the Jaguars away handedly. The Jaguars will have to be much better here in the first half than they were at home last week against the Chargers where they fell behind 27-0. In a hostile environment like Arrowhead, it would be nearly impossible for the Jaguars to mount a comeback even close to the one they pulled off last week. I think the Jags catch the Chiefs sleeping here early in the game after having a bye week and will lead at multiple points in the first half. I expect the Chiefs to be able to score consistently enough for it not to matter in the end.
Side note: I think the Chiefs have been waiting to unleash Kadarius Toney for the playoff run. Look out for him to have a big impact this week or next week.
Score Prediction: JAX 28 KC 41
New York Giants @ Philadelphia
Line: PHI -7.5
It's been a remarkable turnaround for the New York Giants with new head coach Brian Daboll at the helm. He has brought in a culture and a scheme that fits his players, something that had been lacking in New York for far too long. It feels like Daniel Jones is making every big throw in every big moment while using his athleticism to make a difference in the run game. Saquon Barkley is healthy and is a threat to break off a big play at any moment, and Isaiah Hodgins has been a diamond-in-the-rough wide receiver that this team desperately needed. This team is healthier and playing much better football compared to when these teams met in Week 14, a game that the Eagles won 48-22. Philadelphia, on paper, is a juggernaut and is absolutely the better team here. The Eagles dominate both lines of scrimmage and have some of the best skill position players in the league with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Darius Slay and James Bradberry. While I believe the Eagles are the better team here, I expect them to get off to a slow start in this one, a la their 1-seed AFC counterpart Chiefs. The Eagles didn't have to worry much about the results of their last few regular season games after starting the season 13-1, and I think that lack of urgency will carry over a bit into this game. The Giants will have a chip on their shoulder and play hard as a division rival, but the Eagles will find a way in the end.
Score Prediction: NYG 24 PHI 31
Cincinnati @ Buffalo
Line: BUF -5.5 O/U 48.5
Both of these teams have solid defenses and elite quarterbacks who seem to play their best in must-win games. Both of these teams also had major scares against division opponents a week ago in slightly different fashions. The Bills shot themselves in the foot with turnovers against Miami, which has become an unfortunate trend for the team over the last two months. The Bengals suffered more injuries on the offensive line and were bailed out by a 98-yard fumble return for a touchdown against the Ravens. While neither of these teams were impressive in the Wild Card round, I expect them to both play at their best here in this game. If the Bills are going to win this game, they'll have to avoid the turnovers that they've been prone to this season. Joe Burrow will take advantage of those opportunities more often than anyone the Bills have played this year minus Patrick Mahomes. If the Bengals are going to win this game, they'll have to find a way to protect Burrow in order for him to have time to find his elite playmakers. This Bills secondary hasn't been great as of late, and I fully expect for Burrow to take advantage of it if given time in the pocket. All I know is this game is going to be close, but I honestly trust that Joe Burrow will make less mistakes than Josh Allen. That will prove to be the difference in this game.
Score Prediction: CIN 27 BUF 26
Dallas @ San Francisco
Line: SF -4 O/U 46
Last week I wrote about how Brock Purdy doesn't do much outside of the structure of Kyle Shanahan's offense, and he really proved me wrong against Seattle. He extended plays with his legs and was frustrating defensive linemen all game long. Purdy is not perfect by any means, but he's certainly elevated this offense to new heights. With Deebo Samuel back and fully healthy, the 49ers feel unstoppable at the moment. On the flipside, Dak Prescott may have played the best game of his career in Tampa Bay last week. I was impressed at how the Cowboys blocked out all the media noise about how poorly they played in Week 18. They may have played their most complete game of the season in the Wild Card round and I'm intrigued to see if their offense can keep things rolling in San Francisco. I think this game will be close throughout, but the 49ers having homefield advantage and a plethora of some of the best weapons in football will prove to be too much for Dallas to handle. I think Kyle Shanahan is the best coach in football, and I expect him to have a great gameplan to protect Purdy against a nasty Dallas defensive unit.
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